Newsletter

Due to the rapid ascension of interest rates over the past two years, commercial real estate has seen a considerable decline in prices.  Different sectors of the commercial real estate market such as Office, are clearly more troubled.  However, areas such as multifamily, industrial, and retail are performing much better at an underlying business level. ...Read More

Inflationary data continues to run much hotter than the Federal Reserve has expected.  This inflationary pressure is delaying, if not outright halting the Fed’s plans to reduce interest rates this year.  This is a very negative development given financial markets, had been rallying since October in the hopes of a rate -cutting cycle.  We always...Read More

After working for 20 years in the financial industry, one of the most problematic areas for retirement plans is a lack of long-term care protection.  Many people don’t like to think that they will need it, but roughly 70% of 65-year-old people will need it at some point.  A long-term care insurance policy helps cover...Read More

Over the last 6 months, I’ve had the chance to talk to a lot of people throughout the country, either through being clients of TTCM, or callers into our radio shows. Despite good jobs numbers and a solid stock market, a very large percentage of people are dealing with heightened financial anxiety.  Inflationary pressures are...Read More

Last week I wrote about how the meteoric rise of Nvidia, and other AI-driven stocks was likely reflecting bubble-like conditions.  Since that article, the stock has sold off quite hard, losing over $500MM of market capitalization.  Seeking Alpha has a great note from a BTIG analyst on Nvidia, comparing its meteoric rise to Cisco’s in...Read More

Real estate investments take a variety of different forms. They can be tangible assets bought and managed by yourself or by a 3rd party, such as a property management company. They can also be a more passive security such as a publicly traded real estate investment trust, which has many similar characteristics to a stock...Read More

One of my favorite metrics in evaluating a business is the earnings yield. This simple calculation divides the after-tax earnings of a company by the market capitalization. Let’s say you buy a business for $1MM and you earn $100,000 this year after-tax, the earnings yield would be 10%. This is the inverse of the price...Read More

On Thursday, the consumer-price index, a measure of goods and services costs across the economy, fell a bit from May, dropping the YoY inflation rate to 3%.  This combined with weakening employment and wage growth, could open the door for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as early as September.  Now before one gets...Read More

For the last few months, I’ve been writing and talking about the fact that I believe the Nasdaq is in a classic market bubble. The narrative this time has been optimism on the impact of AI. The central stock in this drama has been Nvidia, which surged to a $3 trillion dollar market capitalization. As...Read More

It was a historically bad day in financial markets, particularly in Japan where the Nikkei index was down more than 12% on the day.  There are a lot of reasons for the selloff. The Japanese carry trade has been extremely popular, where large investors borrow at Japan’s ultra-low interest rates, and invest the money in...Read More