Inflationary data continues to run much hotter than the Federal Reserve has expected.  This inflationary pressure is delaying, if not outright halting the Fed’s plans to reduce interest rates this year.  This is a very negative development given financial markets, had been rallying since October in the hopes of a rate -cutting cycle.  We always...Read More

Last Saturday was the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting and there was an interesting quote from Warren Buffett, after selling a chunk of his Apple stock. “I don’t mind at all, given current conditions, building our cash position.  When I look at the equity markets and the composition of what’s going on in the world,...Read More

After working for 20 years in the financial industry, one of the most problematic areas for retirement plans is a lack of long-term care protection.  Many people don’t like to think that they will need it, but roughly 70% of 65-year-old people will need it at some point.  A long-term care insurance policy helps cover...Read More

Over the last 6 months, I’ve had the chance to talk to a lot of people throughout the country, either through being clients of TTCM, or callers into our radio shows. Despite good jobs numbers and a solid stock market, a very large percentage of people are dealing with heightened financial anxiety.  Inflationary pressures are...Read More

As economic data weakens, the stock market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the AI-driven stocks accounting for the vast majority of gains this year in the indices.  A sign of bullishness is evidenced by the fact that in a Bank of America survey, 53% of money managers see no recession in the next 18 months. ...Read More

Last week I wrote about how the meteoric rise of Nvidia, and other AI-driven stocks was likely reflecting bubble-like conditions.  Since that article, the stock has sold off quite hard, losing over $500MM of market capitalization.  Seeking Alpha has a great note from a BTIG analyst on Nvidia, comparing its meteoric rise to Cisco’s in...Read More

Real estate investments take a variety of different forms. They can be tangible assets bought and managed by yourself or by a 3rd party, such as a property management company. They can also be a more passive security such as a publicly traded real estate investment trust, which has many similar characteristics to a stock...Read More

2024 is showing increasing parallels to 2000, right before the Tech Bubble busted.  Bubbles almost always grow larger than most could anticipate, and there is always a story to seemingly justify them, as there is with AI today.  When they pop, they pop violently as was seen when the Tech Bubble collapsed, leading to an...Read More

One of my favorite metrics in evaluating a business is the earnings yield. This simple calculation divides the after-tax earnings of a company by the market capitalization. Let’s say you buy a business for $1MM and you earn $100,000 this year after-tax, the earnings yield would be 10%. This is the inverse of the price...Read More

On Thursday, the consumer-price index, a measure of goods and services costs across the economy, fell a bit from May, dropping the YoY inflation rate to 3%.  This combined with weakening employment and wage growth, could open the door for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as early as September.  Now before one gets...Read More